According to research conducted by AccuWeather in 2016 that analyzed weather trends and its correlation to voting data, difficult weather conditions, including winter weather, can affect voter turnout with swing voters especially.
AccuWeather Global Weather Center – February 10, 2020 – New Hampshire’s presidential primaries are right around the corner, scheduled for Feb. 11, and the weather could impact the voter turnout and overall election results.In the Iowa caucus results the week prior, Pete Buttigieg received 13 delegates and 26.2% of the votes, compared to Sanders' 12 delegates and 26.1% of the votes. However, several news outlets, including the Associated Press, were unable to declare a clear winner because of inconsistencies in this year's process.Prior to the Iowa caucus, Sanders held the lead with 24%, followed closely by Buttigieg at 20%, according to a study from Monmouth University.
However, according to a Boston Globe/Suffolk University Poll, Buttigieg actually trails by just one point at 23%, with the margin between him and other candidates being over 10 points.FiveThirtyEight's live polling average chart shows Sanders holds a lead in the state polls as of noon on Saturday, which he has held onto this chart since overtaking Biden on Jan. 16.With young voters, Sanders has a significant lead with 42%, while Buttigieg trails with 11%. With voters over 50, the numbers are more closely tied; however, Sanders still leads with 23%, followed by Buttigieg at 21%.
"[The Iowa Caucus] won't tell you to a great extent who will win the nomination, let alone the presidency," Drake University political science professor and longtime political analyst Dennis Goldford previously told AccuWeather. "They have a better chance to tell you who will not win the nomination. In other words, if you don’t do well in Iowa in the past at least, your money dries up, it’s hard to continue."